Get ready for a North American trade shake-up!  July 2026 In this edition of ATB’s Ag and Food Blog post we are covering all things CUSMA and the Canadian government’s response to a new world of trade for Ag and Food processors. Canada Day marks the critical review date for the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Will it be smooth sailing with a full renewal, or are we headed for a disruptive trade upheaval as the U.S. pitches a radical new bilateral structure? Meanwhile, the Canadian government isn’t waiting to find out, rapidly pushing a new trade diversification strategy to secure market access for our key sectors, especially Ag & Food, across the Pacific. Read on for a breakdown of the high-stakes decisions facing North American negotiators and a look at Canada’s growing trade connections with economies like Indonesia and the Philippines.

The CUSMA Countdown: What’s Next for North American Trade?

With the scheduled review date of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) looming in July 2026, the three signatory nations are facing critical decisions that will shape the future of North American commerce. The stakes are high, and the potential outcomes range from smooth sailing to a complete trade upheaval.

The three principal options currently on the table for Canada, the U.S., and Mexico are:

• Full Renewal: The simplest route—extending the trade agreement for another sixteen-year term, offering stability and predictability for Ag & Food businesses across the continent.
• Complete Withdrawal: The most disruptive option—terminating the agreement entirely, which would likely revert trade relations to pre-NAFTA or even WTO baseline rules, creating immediate market uncertainty.
• Initiation of Review: Declining a formal full renewal or withdrawal triggers a unique annual review mechanism. This option sustains active negotiations for up to a decade, maintaining the agreement but under constant scrutiny and potential modification.

Canada and Mexico have been very clear they want to renew CUSMA to provide stability for their countries, however the United States has played the role of the wildcard in this trading relationship. United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has been quoted several times with the idea of the U.S. dismantling the trilateral structure in favour of two separate bilateral agreements:

• U.S. – Canada Trade Agreement
• U.S. – Mexico Trade Agreement

This structure could fundamentally alter the negotiating leverage and strategic alignment within North America, potentially sidelining the cooperative trilateral framework established by CUSMA. While the renewal decision is paramount, the backdrop is filled with ongoing commercial disputes and contentious policy concerns:

• • Lingering Tariff Impacts: Despite CUSMA being in force, Canada continues to grapple with the persistent economic fallout from the Steel and Aluminium tariffs previously imposed by the United States, a constant irritant in the bilateral relationship.
  • U.S. Market Access Demands: The U.S. is aggressively pushing for expanded entry into Canada’s dairy sector, which is protected under our supply managed framework. With Bill C-202 passed this will be a hurdle as trade negotiations continue as this bill takes any discussions around supply management off the table.
  • Pressure on Canadian Domestic Policies: The U.S. is using the renewal process to press for specific amendments to Canadian domestic policies, including:
    • Provincial-level regulations impacting the sale of U.S. alcohol products.
    • Canadian government procurement policies, a key area for some U.S. contractors.

The July 2026 review date is fast approaching, and the coming months will be critical as negotiators attempt to navigate renewal options amidst ongoing commercial friction and a proposal that could redraw the map of North American trade.

• Leverage is more balanced thanks to the supreme court. Tariffs under International emergency Economic powers act(IEEPA)

Canadian Government and Trade Diversification

The Canadian government has changed their approach to trade deals, ironically they are mirroring the strategy taken on by their U.S counterparts. Canada is moving away from more comprehensive trade deals to deals that are less comprehensive, this is to allow for deals to be established more quickly. This reflects an adoption of how fast the global economy is adjusting to the wave of protectionism brought on by the U.S administration. Below is a list of key trade agreements that have either been signed or are in progress for Canada as we look to diversify our trade relationships into the future.

Canada and Indonesia

Great news for Canadian exporters, following the comprehensive economic partnership agreement signed with Indonesia in the Fall of 2025, a significant 95% of exports are now enjoying tariff-free access for the next 8-12 months. What’s more, this deal is opening up exciting new doors for Canadian agriculture. Specifically, Indonesia has welcomed Canadian pork and pork products into its market, and will now accept bone-in beef and beef offal over 30 months old—a major shift from the previous restriction to only boneless beef. This signals a fantastic opportunity for growth and expanded trade with a key Southeast Asian economy. Figure 1 below shows a breakdown of Canada’s performance and opportunities in the Indonesian Market place. A Majority of exports to Indonesia are unprocessed raw wheat. Where nearly 30% comes from Alberta. Flour and other meals make up 3.9% of the exports with 95% of this coming from Alberta. There is a huge opportunity to increase our flour and meal exports to Indonesia given our proximity to port access and access to the wheat here in prairies.

Canada and The Philippines

Canada and the Philippines are actively negotiating a bilateral free trade agreement(FTA) to deepen economic ties. First round of formal negotiations began in February of 2026, with exploratory talks that began in December of 2024. Agriculture is a key sector as part of these negotiations and the aim is to have both nations seek to remove trade barriers, increase investment and jobs that are beneficial to both nations. The Philippines has a growing middle class driving demand for higher quality sustainable food products. Key areas for Alberta Ag and Food exports include: Wheat, pork, livestock offal and animal feed. A key item to watch in this market is Canola oil, as the Philippines imports a lot of palm oil from Malaysia, this could be a key area for Ag and Food processors to watch.

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